“When the rains do not come, the grass disappears. When the grass disappears, the cows die. When the cows die, the people go hungry.” — Samburu elder, Wamba, northern Kenya
A way of life at risk
Across Kenya’s drylands, from Turkana to Kajiado, pastoralism has shaped livelihoods and identity for generations. Families have relied on mobility to find pasture and water, balancing fragile ecosystems and sustaining herds through seasonal change.
That system is breaking down. Climate change, land fragmentation, and shifting aspirations among the youth are dismantling the logic of movement that once made pastoralism resilient. The National Drought Management Authority estimates that between 2020 and 2023, drought killed more than 2.6 million animals, erasing livelihoods worth close to KSh 90 billion.
This crisis is not only environmental. It is economic and social, threatening an industry that contributes about 12 percent of Kenya’s GDP through meat, milk, hides and leather. For over 10 million Kenyans who depend directly on livestock, the loss of mobility is eroding both income and culture.
When mobility becomes a risk
For centuries, movement across grazing zones was the most effective way to cope with drought. Pastoralists read the clouds, tracked vegetation and followed patterns of rainfall that had sustained them for generations. Today, those patterns have become unreliable.
Rainfall is erratic and often arrives in short, intense bursts that fail to regenerate grass. Where herders once travelled predictable routes between dry and wet season pastures, they now encounter bare ground or land fenced for private use.
In Kajiado, a study by the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis found that forage availability has fallen by nearly 40 percent since 2000. In Turkana, community leaders say that herders must now walk up to 100 kilometres farther each season in search of grazing, often with little success.
Fatuma Ekal, a herder in Turkana South, explains the uncertainty: “Every dry season feels like gambling with our lives. You move hoping to find pasture, but now the land is already taken.”
The economics of disruption
The collapse of mobility has deep consequences for Kenya’s economy and its private sector.
When animals die or produce less, slaughterhouses run below capacity, milk processors face inconsistent supply, and tanneries lack hides and skins. The Kenya Meat Commission reports that slaughter volumes in 2023 fell by more than a quarter compared with pre-drought years.
Pastoral households, once self-sufficient, are turning to relief food and cash transfers. Treasury data shows that social protection spending during drought cycles now exceeds KSh 25 billion each year.
Livestock insurance has offered some relief. The Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI), developed by the International Livestock Research Institute in partnership with government and insurers, compensates herders based on satellite data rather than physical loss assessments. Yet uptake remains below 15 percent. For most herders, the safety net remains thin.
From movement to management
In Isiolo County, a quiet shift is under way. A youth group known as the Kambi Shanga Cooperative has moved from mobile herding to organised fodder production. On 250 acres of irrigated land, the group grows hay that it sells to neighbouring communities during the dry season. The income helps restock their herds once the rains return.
The cooperative also uses digital livestock platforms and insurance products to manage risk. For them, pastoralism is becoming less about movement and more about management. This emerging model blends traditional knowledge with business principles and technology, showing that adaptation can create both social and commercial value.
What this means for business and policy
The transformation of pastoralism raises difficult questions for companies, investors and policymakers who depend on dryland economies.
For the private sector, volatility in livestock supply affects pricing, quality, and long-term planning. Firms in meat processing, dairy and leather manufacturing need to diversify sourcing and build resilience into their supply chains. Some are beginning to contract local fodder producers or invest in feedlots to stabilise inputs.
Financial institutions have a role in expanding insurance coverage and credit for climate adaptation. Climate-linked financial instruments, such as carbon credits tied to rangeland restoration, could also create new income streams for pastoral communities while meeting corporate sustainability targets.
For policymakers, safeguarding migration corridors within county land-use plans is now essential. Unchecked land subdivision and fencing have reduced grazing areas, fuelling conflict and undermining livelihoods. Restoring these corridors, alongside investment in water harvesting, grass reseeding and veterinary networks, can stabilise production while conserving ecosystems.
Cross-border coordination is equally vital. Shared rangelands with Ethiopia, Somalia and Tanzania demand harmonised grazing agreements to prevent displacement and violence during drought periods.
A cultural transformation
The decline of mobility is not only a question of economics but of identity. Each migration cycle has traditionally transmitted ecological knowledge, clan unity and responsibility for the land. As families settle or abandon herding, these oral traditions are fading.
Young people are seeking new opportunities in towns such as Marsabit and Wajir, often combining technology with livestock trade. Some manage online livestock markets or operate solar-powered cold chains for meat and milk. Their approach reflects a redefinition of pastoralism that prioritises efficiency, entrepreneurship and digital connectivity over nomadic endurance.
Investing in the drylands
Kenya’s drylands have long been viewed as marginal, yet they hold significant potential. The Frontier Counties Development Council estimates that these regions contain 70 percent of the country’s livestock and vast renewable energy resources in wind and solar.
Targeted investment in infrastructure, roads, fodder banks, water pans and cold storage, could unlock growth in these areas. Banks such as KCB and Equity are already piloting specialised financial products for dryland entrepreneurs. Development agencies are supporting similar transitions through blended finance and capacity-building programmes.
Strategic choices for leaders
The evolution of pastoralism is not a distant humanitarian concern. It is a test of leadership across Kenya’s economy.
Executives should integrate climate risk into strategic planning and build partnerships with counties for adaptation infrastructure. Policymakers should shift from crisis relief to preventive investment, while ensuring that pastoralists participate in decisions affecting their land and mobility. Development partners should focus on strengthening local institutions rather than substituting them.
The path ahead
Kenya’s pastoral transition illustrates a broader truth about climate adaptation. Resilience is no longer achieved by repeating the past but by redesigning it. The loss of traditional migration routes is tragic, yet it also opens space for innovation and collaboration.
If mobility built the pastoral economy, management will sustain it. Recognising this shift early can help Kenya turn a looming crisis into a model of climate-smart transformation that blends tradition, enterprise and policy foresight.
Editorial Integrity Statement:
This analysis draws on data from the National Drought Management Authority, KIPPRA, ILRI, WFP and peer-reviewed studies published in Pastoralism Journal. It is intended to inform evidence-based dialogue on climate resilience and does not endorse specific organisations or products.
By Staff Writer | Ethical Business Africa
