Data Snapshot
The voluntary carbon market, once a niche concern, has become central in the fight against climate change. For Africa, it represents both financial and environmental opportunity. More than 100 active projects across 20 countries are leveraging forests and technology to capture carbon on a massive scale.
These ventures are not just ecological. The Africa Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) estimates the continent could access an annual market worth $6 billion to $30 billion by 2030, propelled by reforms and strategic marketing. This comes despite Africa contributing only 4% of global CO₂ emissions while accounting for 17% of the world’s population.
The market is promising but fragile. Suspensions and court rulings have revealed weaknesses in governance, community consent, and carbon accounting. The following data highlights the leading projects shaping the market.
| Rank | Project Name | Country | Project Type | Credits Issued (MtCO₂e) | Estimated Total Potential (MtCO₂e) |
| 1 | Gabon National REDD+ | Gabon | REDD+ (Jurisdictional) | 90.0 | 187.0 |
| 2 | Kariba REDD+ | Zimbabwe | REDD+ | 36.0 | N/A |
| 3 | Mai Ndombe REDD+ | D.R. Congo | REDD+ | 31.0 | 175.0 |
| 4 | Kasigau Corridor REDD+ | Kenya | REDD+ | 15.0 | N/A |
| 5 | Rimba Raya Biodiversity Reserve | Indonesia* | REDD+ | 130.0 | N/A |
| 6 | Northern Kenya Rangelands | Kenya | Soil Carbon | 6.0+ | 50.0 |
| 7 | KOKO Networks Clean Cooking | Kenya | Cookstoves | 1.2 | 15.0 (annual) |
| 8 | BURN Clean Cooking (Various) | Pan-Africa | Cookstoves | 50.9 | N/A |
| 9 | Zambia Agroforestry | Zambia | AFOLU | N/A | 6.5 |
| 10 | Ghana Jurisdictional REDD+ | Ghana | REDD+ | N/A | N/A |
Rimba Raya is included as a global benchmark for comparison. MtCO₂e = million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
Project metadata: Scale, scope, and controversy
The table shows a market dominated by REDD+ projects, aimed at protecting forests. Gabon’s national program leads with 90 million credits issued, anchored by rainforests covering 88% of its territory.
Zimbabwe’s Kariba REDD+ project, which has generated more than $100 million, illustrates both promise and risk. Allegations of inflated claims forced a developer exit, exposing the credibility gap.
Diversification is under way. BURN Manufacturing has distributed over 5.4 million cookstoves across 20 African countries, cutting 50.9 million tons of CO₂ while reducing indoor pollution.
The most contentious case is in Kenya. The Northern Kenya Rangelands Carbon Project, a large soil carbon scheme, has been suspended twice by verifier Verra. A Kenyan court found two conservancies lacked legal and community consent, raising doubts over its legitimacy and reinforcing the need for robust safeguards.
Caveats on comparability: A market in need of standards
Comparisons remain difficult. Credit volumes vary with verification cycles and methodologies.
- Integrity of Credits: REDD+ projects face criticism of baseline inflation, where avoided deforestation is overstated. Allegations suggest Kariba’s reductions were inflated by up to 30 times.
- Price Disparity: African credits often sell for $1 to $3 per ton, far below compliance markets such as the EU. This undervaluation deprives communities of fair benefits.
- Beyond Issuance: Issued credits do not guarantee revenue or future value. Price depends on project type, co-benefits, and credibility of reductions.
Use cases: From investment to due diligence
For stakeholders, the data underscores both risks and opportunities.
- Investors and Corporate Buyers: The record highlights the need for diligence. Netflix and Meta faced reputational blowback for sourcing from the suspended Northern Kenya project. The trend is toward higher integrity partnerships.
- Policymakers: Ghana’s jurisdictional REDD+ allocates nearly 70% of carbon revenue to local communities, offering a model for equitable benefit-sharing.
- Editors and Analysts: The metrics inform coverage of sustainable finance, balancing success stories like Rimba Raya with warnings on governance and consent.
Conclusion: A watershed moment
Africa’s natural capital is among the world’s most powerful carbon sinks. The Congo Basin alone could absorb 1.2 billion tons of CO₂ annually. But the Kenya case shows that monetising this resource requires more than ambition.
The future of Africa’s carbon economy depends on transparency, community consent, and stronger national regulation. As global demand for offsets grows, the challenge is to ensure billions in climate finance benefit the people and ecosystems that sustain the projects.
