Regional cities must choose between towers and trees
By Staff Writer
The 12-hectare parcel adjacent to Nairobi’s Karura Forest changed hands three times between 2018 and 2022, with each prospective buyer proposing high-density residential development. Each application was rejected by the National Environment Management Authority. The land remains vacant, its market value now estimated at KES 1.8 billion (USD 13.8 million), whilst litigation between the most recent buyer and regulatory authorities continues in the Environment and Land Court.
This dispute exemplifies a widening conflict across East African metropolitan regions: rapid urbanisation collides with environmental preservation mandates, creating legal, financial, and governance challenges that few cities have successfully resolved.
Land demand pressures
East Africa’s urban population is expanding at 4.1 per cent annually, according to UN-Habitat data published in 2024. Nairobi’s population reached 5.2 million in the 2024 census, up from 4.4 million in 2019. This growth translates directly into land demand: Nairobi requires approximately 1,200 hectares of new residential and commercial space annually to accommodate population increase, based on Ministry of Lands projections.
Available land within municipal boundaries is diminishing. In Nairobi County, undeveloped parcels within 15 kilometres of the central business district declined from 18,400 hectares in 2015 to 11,200 hectares in 2023, according to county planning records. Average land prices in these zones increased from KES 42 million (USD 323,000) per hectare in 2018 to KES 78 million (USD 600,000) in 2024.
Developers face mounting pressure to acquire land previously designated as green space or conservation zones. Between 2020 and 2024, Nairobi’s planning department received 347 applications for development on land with environmental restrictions, according to county records. Of these, 89 were approved with conditions, 203 were rejected, and 55 remain under review.
Conservation priorities
Kenya’s Environmental Management and Co-ordination Act requires minimum green space coverage of 10 per cent in urban areas. Nairobi County currently maintains 8.3 per cent green coverage, below the statutory threshold. The Nairobi Metropolitan Area Master Plan 2030 identifies 42 critical conservation zones totalling 14,600 hectares, including riparian reserves and buffer zones around Karura, Ngong, and City Park forests.
These designations carry legal weight but face enforcement challenges. A 2023 audit by the Controller of Budget found that Nairobi County allocated KES 240 million (USD 1.85 million) to environmental protection, representing 0.6 per cent of the county’s KES 39.4 billion (USD 303 million) annual budget. The audit noted insufficient staffing: 12 enforcement officers for 696 square kilometres of county territory.
“The financial case for conservation requires valuation methodologies that capture long-term ecological services,” said Dr Catherine Ngugi, director of the University of Nairobi’s Institute for Climate Change and Adaptation, in testimony before the Senate Committee on Land, Environment and Natural Resources in March 2024. “Current planning frameworks emphasise short-term revenue generation, creating systematic bias towards development.”
A 2022 study by Dr Ngugi’s institute estimated that Karura Forest provides ecosystem services worth KES 4.2 billion (USD 32.3 million) annually, including water filtration, air quality improvement, and carbon sequestration. Yet these benefits do not appear in municipal revenue accounts, whilst development generates immediate tax receipts.
Case study: Nairobi’s Karura forest buffer
Karura Forest, a 1,041-hectare indigenous forest in northern Nairobi, has served as a test case for buffer zone management since 2009, when the Kenya Forest Service established a 100-metre development-free buffer around the forest boundary. The buffer designation affects approximately 380 hectares of privately owned land.
Between 2010 and 2023, landowners filed 67 lawsuits challenging the buffer restrictions, according to Environment and Land Court records. The court has issued mixed rulings: 23 cases resulted in partial compensation orders totalling KES 2.1 billion (USD 16.2 million), 31 cases upheld the restrictions without compensation, and 13 remain pending.
The compensation orders created fiscal strain. The Kenya Forest Service’s annual budget for 2023/24 was KES 3.8 billion (USD 29.2 million), covering 1.24 million hectares of gazetted forest nationwide. The Service lacks dedicated funding for land acquisition or compensation.
In 2021, the Nairobi County Government proposed a transfer of development rights scheme, allowing buffer zone landowners to sell unused development capacity to developers in designated high-density zones. Implementation stalled due to legislative gaps. Kenya’s land laws do not recognise transferable development rights as a property interest. A draft bill to establish the framework has been before the National Assembly’s Committee on Lands since 2022.
Stakeholder tensions
Urban land conflicts involve multiple parties with divergent interests. Landowners seek maximum economic return from their property. In Nairobi’s buffer zones, land acquired in the 1980s and 1990s for KES 800,000 to KES 2.5 million (USD 40,000 to USD 125,000 at historical rates) per hectare now carries market values of KES 60 million to KES 90 million (USD 462,000 to USD 692,000) per hectare in unrestricted zones, but only KES 8 million to KES 15 million (USD 62,000 to USD 115,000) in buffer zones, according to property valuation data from Knight Frank Kenya.
Environmental authorities operate under legal mandates to maintain ecological integrity but lack resources for land acquisition or compensation. The National Environment Management Authority’s 2023/24 budget was KES 1.9 billion (USD 14.6 million), covering regulatory functions for the entire country.
County governments balance revenue needs against environmental mandates. Development generates immediate income through land rates, building permits, and utility connections. Nairobi County collected KES 8.4 billion (USD 64.6 million) in own-source revenue in 2023/24, with land-related fees and taxes comprising 34 per cent of this total.
“We need clear legal thresholds for when restrictions trigger compensation obligations,” said James Mwangi, chairman of the Kenya Property Developers Association, in a November 2024 interview with Business Daily. “The current case-by-case approach creates uncertainty that prevents both development and conservation from proceeding efficiently.”
Policy implications
Current planning frameworks in East African cities prove inadequate for managing development-conservation conflicts. Several areas require attention.
Legal clarity on property rights remains essential. Existing law establishes environmental restrictions but provides ambiguous guidance on compensation, creating prolonged litigation. Uganda’s 2019 Physical Planning Act requires compensation for restrictions that reduce property values by more than 20 per cent, providing a clearer threshold than Kenya’s case-by-case approach.
Administrative capacity requires strengthening. Enforcement of conservation zones requires adequate staffing and technical systems. Nairobi County’s ratio of one enforcement officer per 58 square kilometres compares unfavourably with Durban, South Africa, which maintains one officer per 12 square kilometres, according to 2023 data from the African Urban Planning Network.
The World Bank’s 2024 report “Green Cities in Africa” recommends that East African cities adopt integrated land-use planning that explicitly values environmental assets and establishes clear procedures for development decisions affecting conservation zones. “Current ad-hoc approaches generate uncertainty for all parties, delays that increase costs, and litigation that consumes resources,” the report states.
Forward outlook
The tension between development and conservation in East African cities will intensify as urbanisation continues. Population projections indicate that Nairobi will reach 7.5 million residents by 2035, according to UN median estimates. These increases will generate demand for an additional 35,000 to 40,000 hectares of urban land across the region.
Simultaneously, climate pressures increase the value of urban green space. Nairobi experienced a 1.8-degree Celsius temperature increase between 2000 and 2023, according to Kenya Meteorological Department data. Tree coverage provides measurable cooling: areas within 100 metres of Karura Forest recorded average temperatures 3.4 degrees lower than similar-altitude areas without forest proximity during 2023 heat periods.
“Cities that develop systematic approaches to land-use conflicts will manage growth whilst preserving environmental assets,” said Dr Paul Ondiek, urban planning specialist at UN-Habitat’s Regional Office for Africa, speaking at a Nairobi conference in October 2024. “Those that continue reactive, case-by-case decision-making will face escalating litigation and development uncertainty.”
The Karura buffer zone case remains unresolved. The most recent court hearing, in November 2024, adjourned pending government response to compensation claims totalling KES 840 million (USD 6.5 million). The vacant land waits, its fate illustrating the broader challenge facing cities throughout the region.
