Kenya’s crumbling water system is ill-equipped for climate change
By Analysis Desk
Kenya’s water sector confronts a convergence of structural and climatic pressures that threaten to undermine economic growth and public health gains achieved over the past decade. With non-revenue water (water produced but never billed) reaching 45 per cent nationally, the country loses approximately 205 million cubic metres annually, equivalent to nine months of Nairobi’s water consumption.
The financial impact is substantial. According to the Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB), these losses translate to KES 11.9 billion (USD 91 million) in foregone revenue in the 2023–2024 period alone, up from KES 10.2 billion (USD 78 million) the previous year. This figure represents water that leaks from deteriorating pipes, is stolen through illegal connections, or disappears through metering inaccuracies.
Climate vulnerability compounds infrastructure deficits
Kenya’s classification as a water-scarce country (with 452 cubic metres available per person annually, well below the United Nations threshold of 1,000 cubic metres) makes infrastructure efficiency critical. Yet climate change is intensifying both drought and flooding patterns across the nation.
The country’s arid and semi-arid lands, which comprise 80 per cent of its territory, have experienced 28 recorded droughts over the past century, with frequency increasing. In Tana River County, pastoralist Abaloni Barissa noted in 2022 that after 48 years in the region, current conditions were unprecedented. “It was never like this before,” he stated. “Rains are not there. Our animals are dying.”
The 2008–2011 drought alone reduced GDP growth by an estimated 2.8 percentage points annually, according to government data. Heavy rainfall events create different but equally severe problems. Flooding in the Tana River basin has submerged agricultural fields, whilst contamination from agricultural runoff and inadequate sanitation infrastructure degrades water quality during extreme weather.
Water treatment plants, already operating at capacity, struggle to manage fluctuations in raw water quality. In rural areas, Jacob Kazungu, a farmer in Kilifi County, described the mounting pressure. “I mostly plant maize and okra. I have a family with five children, and they are all in school. As a farmer, life has not been easy due to the scarcity of rains. When you compare with two years ago, things are getting worse.”
Saumu Abdalla, a mother of four, told the International Organisation for Migration that water scarcity disproportionately affects women. “The dry season brings with it a lot of challenges. People have to walk long distances in search of water. It affects our health, especially women and girls.”
Investment requirements and financing gaps
Achieving universal water access by 2030 (a goal enshrined in Kenya’s Vision 2030 and the Constitution’s guarantee of clean water in adequate quantities) requires an estimated KES 1.82 trillion (USD 14 billion) over 15 years, according to World Bank assessments. The government’s National Water and Sanitation Investment Plan (NAWASIP) acknowledges a financing gap of approximately KES 455 billion (USD 3.5 billion).
Development partners currently contribute more than half of water infrastructure financing, but the government has begun mobilising commercial capital. The Water Sector Trust Fund has facilitated projects worth KES 3.74 billion (USD 28.7 million), reaching 1.48 million people through 386 water and sanitation projects. Under its results-based financing programme, water service providers can access commercial loans with subsidies of up to 60 per cent upon meeting agreed deliverables.
The Lake Victoria North Water Works Development Agency alone requires KES 34 billion (USD 261 million) annually to undertake planned infrastructure projects. Chief Executive Joel Wamalwa emphasises a shift towards gravity-fed schemes to reduce electricity dependency and operational costs. “When we successfully roll out, it will be an investment opportunity,” he stated.
A 2023 World Bank report estimates that Kenya loses KES 27 billion (USD 324 million) annually due to water-related challenges including poor sanitation and disease. The Mwache Dam project in Mombasa, supported by the World Bank, aims to increase food production in Kwale County from approximately KES 240 million to KES 2 billion per year, whilst serving 62,000 people in the coastal region.
Urban centres bear acute pressure
Nairobi illustrates the magnitude of urban water challenges. The capital loses 51 per cent of its water to non-revenue causes, according to Governor Johnson Sakaja. Despite revenue growth from KES 8 billion (USD 61 million) to nearly KES 12 billion (USD 92 million) over the past year, Nairobi City Water operates with negative working capital due to poor debt recovery and unaccounted infrastructure.
“We’re pursuing a cost-reflective tariff through WASREB because the current regime does not match the cost of service delivery,” Sakaja told senators in July 2025. The utility maintains major dams and distribution networks that were never formally transferred to its books under the 2016 Water Act.
Mombasa faces different constraints. The coastal city currently has only half the water required to meet demand, whilst sea level rise threatens saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources. Rising temperatures accelerate glacier loss on Mount Kenya, further straining water resources and glacially-fed river flows.
In Nairobi, approximately 20 per cent of the city is connected to a sewer system, whilst the rest relies on onsite sanitation including septic tanks and pit latrines. These systems are not well managed and often overflow or leak into waterways. The situation is comparable across East Africa, where only 30 per cent of Tanzania’s population, 40 per cent of Uganda’s, and 50 per cent of Kenya’s urban population is connected to sewer systems.
Governance and technical reforms
Kenya’s 2016 Water Act created a regulatory framework aligned with the 2010 Constitution, establishing county-level Water Works Development Boards and strengthening oversight mechanisms. However, implementation remains uneven. Counties struggle with funding constraints, technical expertise gaps, weak governance, and poor coordination with national authorities.
The Water Resources Authority estimates 45,000 boreholes exist nationwide, yet only 10,000 are registered. This proliferation of unregistered extraction points (approximately 35,000 boreholes drilled since the 2007 water sector reforms) creates both revenue losses and groundwater management challenges. Inadequate mapping increases risks of aquifer depletion and contamination.
Non-revenue water management has become a priority target. A Non-Revenue Water Centre of Excellence, inaugurated in March 2024, aims to facilitate adoption of smart metering, leak detection systems, and asset management strategies. The centre consolidates knowledge from public and private sectors, academia, and civil society to develop solutions adaptable across Kenya’s 91 water service providers.
Only eight of 86 utilities met the national non-revenue water target of below 30 per cent in recent assessments. Twenty-one counties lost more than 50 per cent of produced water, with Migori County recording 77 per cent losses, followed by Marsabit at 67 per cent and Baringo at 64 per cent.
For comparison, efficiently managed systems typically maintain non-revenue water below 25 per cent. In 2005, Senegal achieved 20 per cent, Burkina Faso 18 per cent, and Botswana’s Water Utility Corporation 16 per cent. However, other African countries face extreme levels: Zambia exceeds 45 per cent, Maputo more than 60 per cent, and Lindi in Tanzania 75 per cent.
Regional context and comparative performance
Kenya’s challenges exist within a broader East African context. According to the World Bank, nine countries (Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) are home to 80 per cent of underserved people in the region. As of October 2022, approximately 226 million people in Eastern and Southern Africa lacked access to basic water services.
The distribution of water varies significantly within the region. The western component of East Africa, including Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda, along with the central part of the continent, are considered to have a rain surplus, whilst large parts of Kenya are considered to have a very large water deficit. Kenya, like Tanzania, has arid and semi-arid zones covering much of its territory, whilst Uganda and Rwanda maintain moist sub-humid conditions.
Lake Victoria, Africa’s largest lake and the world’s second-largest freshwater lake, sustains over 47 million people across five countries. With its shores spanning Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, and its upper watershed extending into Rwanda and Burundi, the lake provides water, food, and livelihoods for millions. Yet the basin faces threats including depletion of natural resources due to rising population pressure, over-exploitation, unsustainable agricultural practices, over-fishing, and pollution.
The Tana River basin in Kenya supports hydropower, irrigated agriculture, fishing on the seasonal floodplain, flood recession agriculture, reservoir fisheries, estuary fisheries, floodplain cattle grazing, and sediment transport through the delta to the coast. Maintaining flood flows is important for basin habitat regeneration and biodiversity needs, small-scale informal agriculture, and livestock grazing. Research by the University of Manchester and the International Union for the Conservation of Nature examined how controlled releases from multi-reservoir systems can be optimised to consider both provisioning ecosystem services and engineered services at different locations and in different seasons.
Access disparities persist
Despite progress, 20 million Kenyans lack access to basic drinking water, and 34 million have no access to basic sanitation, according to the Ministry of Water, Sanitation and Irrigation. Approximately 31.6 per cent of the population uses unimproved water sources, including unprotected wells and springs.
The 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey shows that whilst 80 per cent of households nationally have access to improved drinking water sources, only 56 per cent of rural households use improved water sources. Counties including Turkana and Kitui lag far behind.
Nalangu Ewoi, a 35-year-old mother in Turkana, begins her six-hour walk before sunrise. “If I don’t go early, the water point will be dry,” she stated, balancing a 20-litre jerrican on her head. A 2024 report by Sauti za Wananchi found that whilst 82 per cent of households nationwide reported taking less than 30 minutes to fetch water, nearly 26 per cent of rural households spend considerably longer.
In rural areas, 12 per cent of the population still practises open defecation. Urban slums often rely on water vendors during supply disruptions, paying premium prices for water of uncertain quality. In informal settlements like Kibera and Mukuru, residents buy water from vendors at exorbitant prices or share communal taps with long queues and questionable hygiene.
Spatial analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data from 12 East African countries, including Kenya, identified significant clusters of limited access to drinking water services. Primary clusters were located in Uganda and Rwanda, whilst secondary clusters were observed in Malawi, Mozambique, Kenya, Ethiopia, and parts of Madagascar. Kenya exhibited Log Likelihood Ratios ranging from 11.93 to 3,135.38, indicating substantial geographic disparities.
Population growth amplifies demand
With Kenya’s population projected to exceed 90 million by 2050 (up from 54 million currently) and the economy expected to quadruple, water availability per capita could halve. This demographic pressure occurs as climate change reduces rainfall reliability in key catchment areas.
The Upper Athi River Basin, which serves 12 counties including Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos, and Nyandarua, faces the highest drought and flooding risks nationally. The Green Climate Fund is supporting a project to enhance water resilience and community adaptation in this least water-secure region.
Joseph Kamau, a farmer in Murang’a, described the impact. “My entire maize crop failed,” he stated. “We depend on rain, but the skies were silent this year.” With 83 per cent of farms in Kenya being rain-fed, erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts, including the devastating 2022 dry spell, are making agriculture increasingly untenable.
Kitui and Makueni counties have seen improvements through rainwater harvesting projects, supported by citizens, local governments and non-governmental organisations. These models could be replicated in other arid and semi-arid regions. A 2024 Sauti za Wananchi poll showed that a majority of Kenyans—67 per cent—rank water among their top three development priorities, surpassing even roads or electricity in some rural areas.
Strategic responses and operational efficiency
The government has approved a KES 83 billion (USD 637 million) plan to construct 25 medium-sized dams, primarily serving arid regions, with cumulative capacity to supply 353 million litres and serve more than 600,000 households.
Infrastructure creditworthiness has emerged as a critical factor for attracting commercial investment. Following World Bank-supported creditworthiness training, 36 water sector professionals completed certification in July 2024. WASREB’s annual Impact reports show positive trends in credit ratings amongst licensed water services providers.
The regulatory board emphasises that compliance with water services regulations is foundational to achieving universal access. Revenue collection efficiency improved to 95 per cent in the 2023–2024 period, whilst cost coverage (the ratio of earnings to expenditures) rose from 95 per cent to 98 per cent, reversing a three-year decline.
Rwanda has achieved notable improvements through infrastructure investments, community water systems, national policies recognising water as a basic right, and partnerships with international organisations. Similarly, Uganda has enhanced water access by implementing decentralised management systems, promoting rainwater harvesting, and rehabilitating boreholes to strengthen rural resilience.
Way forward
Kenya’s water sector requires concurrent action on multiple fronts: reducing non-revenue water through infrastructure investment and enforcement; expanding coverage in underserved areas; building climate resilience into system design; and mobilising commercial financing whilst protecting affordability for low-income households.
A 2023 survey by An Fóram Uisce in Kenya found that 74 per cent of water consumers are willing to implement conservation measures but lack knowledge on how to do so. Public education on water security challenges, consumption patterns, and infrastructure constraints remains inadequate.
As Kenya transitions towards middle-income status, the shift from grant-based to loan-based infrastructure financing demands improved utility creditworthiness and operational efficiency. The stakes extend beyond service delivery: water security increasingly determines economic competitiveness, public health outcomes, and the country’s capacity to withstand climate shocks.
The rural roads of Tana River remain dotted with drying carcasses of dead animals. The grazing fields are dusty and many of the water pans, which collect and store rainwater, are drying up. Riverbeds have turned into footpaths. At one water pan, serving people as far as 30 kilometres away, community members are moving away dead livestock to avoid contaminating their only source of water.
Data sources: Water Services Regulatory Board (WASREB) Impact Reports; World Bank Kenya Water Sector Analysis; Ministry of Water, Sanitation and Irrigation; Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA); Water Resources Authority; National Water and Sanitation Investment Plan (NAWASIP); Green Climate Fund; International Organisation for Migration; Kenya Demographic and Health Survey; Sauti za Wananchi; University of Manchester; International Union for the Conservation of Nature; East African Community; UNICEF Eastern and Southern Africa.
