Can Kenya’s most famous export adapt to changing times?
By Philip Mwnagangi
The sun has barely risen over the Kericho highlands when Margaret Chebet begins plucking the tender green shoots that will become someone’s afternoon cup of tea halfway across the world. She works quickly, her practised fingers selecting only the finest leaves, yet her mind turns to worries that previous generations of Kenyan tea farmers never contemplated: erratic rainfall patterns, volatile international prices, and the growing list of certifications her cooperative must obtain to access premium markets. These concerns, replicated across thousands of smallholder farms, crystallise the challenges facing Kenya’s tea industry as it confronts an uncertain future.
Kenya stands as the world’s third-largest tea producer and the leading exporter of black tea, with the sector contributing approximately 26 per cent of the country’s total foreign exchange earnings. In 2023, Kenya exported 555,000 tonnes of tea, generating revenues exceeding 163 billion Kenyan shillings (£970 million). The industry directly employs over 600,000 people and supports the livelihoods of roughly three million Kenyans when indirect employment is considered, according to the Kenya Tea Development Agency. Yet this economic mainstay faces converging pressures that threaten to reshape its structure fundamentally.
The thirst that keeps growing
Global tea consumption reached 6.6 million tonnes in 2023, with projections suggesting demand will exceed 7.4 million tonnes by 2027, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. This apparently reassuring trajectory, however, conceals a more complex reality for Kenyan producers. Traditional bulk tea markets in Egypt, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom, which collectively absorb nearly 60 per cent of Kenya’s exports, are experiencing stagnant or declining per capita consumption. Meanwhile, demand growth increasingly concentrates in premium segments and speciality teas, categories where Kenya has historically struggled to compete.
China and India dominate the speciality tea market, leveraging centuries-old reputations and sophisticated marketing. Kenya produces predominantly CTC (crush, tear, curl) black tea, a commodity product sold largely through the Mombasa auction where prices fluctuate according to global supply rather than quality differentiation. Average auction prices declined from $2.84 per kilogramme in 2018 to $2.14 in 2023, squeezing margins for farmers who simultaneously face rising input costs.
Peter Kanyago, chairman of the East African Tea Trade Association, observed in a recent industry forum that “Kenyan tea has exceptional quality, but we have trapped ourselves in a commodity mindset. The future belongs to those who can tell a story about origin, sustainability, and unique flavour profiles.” This recognition has prompted some producers to explore orthodox tea production and single-origin offerings, yet such initiatives represent less than five per cent of national output.
Consumer preferences in developed markets increasingly favour teas with verified sustainability credentials, organic certification, or compelling ethical narratives. Research by Euromonitor International indicates that 67 per cent of European tea consumers consider environmental and social factors when making purchasing decisions, up from 43 per cent in 2018. For Kenya, this shift presents both opportunity and obligation.
When the weather turns
Climate variability poses perhaps the most existential threat to Kenya’s tea sector. Tea cultivation requires specific conditions: temperatures between 10 and 30 degrees Celsius, annual rainfall exceeding 1,200 millimetres, and well-distributed precipitation throughout the year. Kenya’s tea-growing regions traditionally enjoyed near-perfect conditions, but climate change has introduced destabilising volatility.
The Kenya Meteorological Department reports that tea-growing areas have experienced increasingly irregular rainfall patterns over the past decade, with prolonged dry spells alternating with intense downpours. In 2019, drought conditions reduced national tea production by 12 per cent compared to the previous year. The 2023 growing season witnessed similar disruptions, with April rainfall levels 40 per cent below the 30-year average in key producing counties including Kericho, Bomet, and Nandi.
Rising temperatures compound these challenges. Research published in the journal Climate Risk Management suggests that suitable land for tea cultivation in Kenya could decline by up to 25 per cent by 2050 under moderate climate scenarios. Higher temperatures accelerate pest lifecycles and increase disease pressure, particularly from blister blight and root rot. Smallholder farmers, who cultivate approximately 60 per cent of Kenya’s tea acreage, often lack resources for adaptive measures such as irrigation infrastructure or shade tree planting.
Dr Jane Kimani, a climate scientist at the University of Nairobi, notes that “tea is particularly vulnerable because it represents a long-term investment. Farmers cannot simply switch crops when conditions deteriorate. A tea bush takes three to five years to reach productive maturity and can continue producing for 50 years. Decisions made today lock in consequences for decades.”
The Tea Research Institute in Kericho has developed drought-resistant cultivars and climate-smart agricultural practices, yet adoption remains limited. Extension services reach only a fraction of smallholder farmers, and many lack capital for recommended interventions such as soil conservation measures or improved drainage systems.
The certification imperative
Sustainability certifications have evolved from niche market differentiators into baseline requirements for accessing European and North American markets. Rainforest Alliance and Fairtrade International represent the two dominant certification schemes in Kenya’s tea sector, each offering distinct approaches to environmental stewardship and social equity.
Rainforest Alliance certification, which emphasises ecosystem conservation and sustainable farm management, now covers approximately 33 per cent of Kenya’s tea production area. The scheme requires farmers to meet standards spanning soil health, water management, biodiversity conservation, and worker welfare. Certification typically commands a premium of 5 to 12 per cent over auction prices, though this margin has compressed as certified tea becomes more common.
Fairtrade certification takes a different approach, emphasising minimum price guarantees and social premiums for community investment. Roughly 80,000 Kenyan smallholder farmers participate in Fairtrade-certified cooperatives, receiving an additional 50 cents per kilogramme above market prices plus a social premium of 50 cents per kilogramme for community projects. These premiums funded construction of 127 schools and 43 health facilities in tea-growing regions between 2018 and 2023, according to Fairtrade Africa.
Yet certification presents challenges alongside benefits. The application process demands extensive documentation, regular audits, and ongoing compliance monitoring, imposing costs that can exceed $30,000 annually for medium-sized cooperatives. Smallholder farmers often struggle with literacy requirements and administrative burdens. Catherine Mugo, managing director of the Meru Central Farmers’ Cooperative Society, explains that “certification opens doors to better markets, but the paperwork can be overwhelming. We need three full-time staff just to manage certification compliance.”
Questions also persist about whether sustainability premiums adequately compensate farmers for additional labour and inputs required. Research by the International Institute for Environment and Development found that certified Kenyan tea farmers spent an average of 23 per cent more on labour and farm management than non-certified counterparts, whilst premiums averaged only 8 per cent above baseline prices after accounting for certification costs.
Power in numbers
Farmer cooperatives have historically formed the backbone of Kenya’s smallholder tea sector, providing processing infrastructure, market access, and collective bargaining power. The Kenya Tea Development Agency, representing 650,000 smallholder farmers organised into 66 tea factories, dominates the cooperative landscape. KTDA factories process approximately 60 per cent of national production and have delivered consistent returns to members, though recent years have tested this model.
Governance controversies erupted in 2020 when farmers protested delayed payments and questioned management accountability. The government intervened, implementing reforms that increased farmer representation on factory boards and enhanced financial transparency. These changes reflected broader tensions between smallholders seeking greater control and professional management arguing for operational independence.
Forward-thinking cooperatives are exploring strategies to capture more value within the supply chain. The Githongo Tea Factory in Meru County established a packaging facility in 2022, enabling direct sales to Kenyan supermarkets under the factory’s own brand. This vertical integration increased returns to farmers by 18 per cent compared to selling through the Mombasa auction. Similar initiatives remain rare, however, constrained by capital requirements and marketing expertise.
Some cooperatives are embracing digital technologies to improve efficiency and transparency. Mobile applications now enable farmers to track production volumes, quality assessments, and payment schedules in real time. Blockchain pilots, though still experimental, promise enhanced traceability that could appeal to consumers willing to pay premiums for verified provenance.
The cooperative model also facilitates collective investment in climate adaptation. The Kapkoros Tea Factory used social premiums from Fairtrade certification to establish a tree nursery, distributing 200,000 seedlings to member farmers for shade cover and soil conservation between 2021 and 2023. Such initiatives demonstrate how cooperative structures can mobilise resources for long-term resilience.
Brewing a better future
Kenya’s tea sector stands at an inflection point. The fundamentals remain strong: exceptional growing conditions, established infrastructure, and a motivated farming community. Yet complacency invites decline. Success in the coming decade requires simultaneous action across multiple fronts: quality differentiation, climate adaptation, value addition, and farmer empowerment.
The industry must transition from commodity bulk production towards higher-value segments. This means investing in orthodox tea manufacturing, developing recognisable origin brands, and cultivating direct relationships with international buyers. Rwanda’s tea sector offers instructive lessons; despite producing only one-tenth of Kenya’s volume, Rwandan teas command premiums through aggressive quality positioning and origin marketing.
Climate resilience demands urgent attention and sustained investment. Scaling up proven adaptations such as drought-resistant cultivars, agroforestry systems, and water harvesting infrastructure requires coordinated action from government, development partners, and the private sector. The Tea Board of Kenya estimates that comprehensive climate adaptation would require investments exceeding 40 billion shillings over the next decade, resources unlikely to materialise without international climate finance.
Sustainability certifications should evolve from compliance exercises into genuine partnerships that deliver meaningful benefits to farmers whilst meeting consumer expectations. This requires streamlining certification processes, ensuring premiums cover additional costs, and linking certifications explicitly to United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 12 (responsible consumption and production) and 15 (life on land).
Most fundamentally, smallholder farmers must occupy the centre of industry strategy. Strengthening cooperative governance, improving access to extension services, and ensuring equitable value distribution will determine whether Kenya’s three million tea-dependent citizens face prosperity or precarity.
Margaret Chebet’s morning harvest represents more than agricultural routine; it embodies an industry navigating profound transformation. Whether Kenya’s tea sector thrives or merely survives in the decades ahead depends on decisions being made today in factory boardrooms, government offices, and cooperative meetings across the highlands. The leaves have been picked. Now comes the steeping.
