Africa’s aviation sector confronts a challenge fundamentally different from its global counterparts. Whilst developed economies retrofit mature infrastructure for climate compliance, African nations must simultaneously expand connectivity to drive economic development and build sustainable systems from scratch.
Kenya exemplifies this paradox. Jomo Kenyatta International Airport handled over 8 million passengers in 2023, whilst Kenya Airways connects Nairobi to 42 African destinations. Yet the country’s per capita aviation emissions remain a fraction of developed markets. Kenya has committed to a 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 under its Nationally Determined Contributions, with the transport sector accounting for 52% of the country’s emissions.
The asymmetric stakes
Africa accounts for 18% of the global population but just 2.1% of air transport activities, according to IATA data. Meanwhile, long-haul routes to European and Asian markets generate disproportionate emissions that African carriers must mitigate. Despite being home to 18% of the world’s population, Africa accounts for just 2% of global air passenger traffic.
For Kenya, aviation represents an economic lifeline. Tourism contributes 10% of GDP, with nearly 70% of international visitors arriving by air. The horticulture sector exports over $1 billion in fresh flowers and produce annually. Cut-flower exports to Europe require overnight transport, making aviation strategically indispensable yet increasingly vulnerable to carbon regulations, including the European Union’s Emissions Trading System.
“Kenya Airways recognises that sustainability is a collective effort,” states Allan Kilavuka, Kenya Airways Group Managing Director and CEO. “In collaboration with customers, suppliers and partners, KQ is fostering an ecosystem where sustainable practices are shared, scaled and refined across the aviation industry.”
Pre-COVID, aviation supported 7.7 million jobs and $63 billion in economic activity in Africa. Projections show demand will triple over the next two decades. Climate impacts already cost African economies 5-15% of GDP growth annually, whilst rising sea levels threaten coastal airports from Lagos to Mombasa.
The technology gap
The prevailing decarbonisation narrative centres on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), next-generation aircraft and operational efficiency. Whilst these solutions hold promise for mature markets, structural barriers constrain their African applicability.
The SAF challenge
Kenya Airways has launched its 2024 Sustainability Report, announcing plans to begin local production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel within the next five years. The airline plans to cultivate SAF feedstock on degraded land in Kwale County, previously a mining site. The initiative earned Kenya Airways the “Best Approach to Scaling SAF” award at the 2024 SkyTeam Aviation Challenge.
However, SAF supply meets only about 2% of global demand. Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasises the constraint: “While airlines invested record amounts in purchases of Sustainable Aviation Fuel in 2024, less than 0.5% of fuel needs were met with SAF. SAF is in short supply and costs must come down.”
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Sustainability and Chief Economist, highlighted South Africa’s potential at the Wings of Change Focus Africa conference in Johannesburg. “South Africa has vast potential to become a leading SAF producer in the region,” she said. A World Wide Fund for Nature study concluded that South Africa has the immediate technical potential to produce 3.2 billion to 4.5 billion litres of SAF annually, equivalent to three times local consumption needs, meaning export opportunities exist.
“Introducing green hydrogen into the SAF manufacturing process could extend this potential to 4.5 billion litres per year,” notes Farai Chireshe, energy analyst and project officer at WWF South Africa. South Africa’s abundant feedstocks include sugarcane low-carbon by-products and biomass from cleared invasive alien plants, which cover more than 10% of the country’s land mass and consume up to 6% of its fresh water.
Kenya imported 100% of its 1.6 billion litres of jet fuel in 2023, creating energy security vulnerabilities. Production costs remain four to five times higher than traditional jet fuel. For price-sensitive African carriers operating on thin margins, such increases remain economically untenable without external support. In 2024, Kenya Airways reported an operating profit of Ksh 5.4 billion, marking the first time in seven years that the airline achieved such a result.
Regional cooperation models
African carriers increasingly recognise that collaboration offers competitive advantage. Royal Air Maroc and Air Senegal signed a strategic partnership in September 2023, establishing a codeshare agreement allowing passengers to purchase tickets from either airline’s network and travel on both fleets.
“This partnership is perfectly in line with the excellent relations between our two countries,” emphasised Abdelhamid Addou, CEO of Royal Air Maroc. Alioune Badara Fall, General Director of Air Senegal, echoed this sentiment: “Royal Air Maroc and Air Sénégal are today realising the desire of the highest authorities of our respective countries to develop their economic, social and cultural exchanges.”
Royal Air Maroc aims to grow from 50 to 200 aircraft by 2037, according to Addou. The carrier has also signed a memorandum of understanding with China Southern Airlines to strengthen cooperation and build an “air corridor” responding to growing travel demand between China and Africa, helping passengers avoid complex connections via Europe or the Middle East.
However, Addou highlighted the challenges at an industry forum in November 2024. European airlines gained unfettered access to Moroccan and African markets through open skies agreements, but when Royal Air Maroc sought to expand into Europe, they faced “open skies and closed airports”. Securing landing slots at major European airports remains a constant struggle, as African airlines face challenges in gaining equal access to European hubs.
Ethiopian Airlines serves 38 other African countries, processing almost 11 million transit passengers in 2024 at Addis Ababa Bole International Airport. The carrier’s cargo business represents an export volume to China exceeding 532,000 tons and an import volume approaching 200,000 tons since 2020.
Operational efficiency
In 2024, Kenya Airways achieved a 15% reduction in waste generation compared to the previous year. The airline eliminated single-use plastics across all facilities and 12% of ground handling equipment is now powered by renewable electricity sources. “With 64% of carbon emissions in aviation stemming from fuel consumption, we are investing in the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel, integrating electric ground handling vehicles and adopting pyro diesel in our ground equipment,” notes Kilavuka.
However, these measures address only 2-5% of airport-related carbon footprints. Africa’s fragmented airspace forces circuitous routing that adds flight time and fuel burn. The African Union’s Single African Air Transport Market aims to liberalise routes, but only 35 of 55 member states have signed on. Optimising continental airspace could reduce aviation fuel consumption by 8-12%, according to IATA estimates.
The investment calculus
Transitioning Kenya’s aviation ecosystem would demand an estimated $5-8 billion over the next decade. Extrapolated continentally, Africa faces a $50-100 billion aviation decarbonisation investment requirement by 2050. Kenya’s updated NDC commits to mobilise domestic resources to meet 13% of the required budget and requires international support for the other 87%.
Thomsen articulated the opportunity clearly: “Airlines are ready and waiting to purchase SAF as evidenced by the fact that every drop of SAF produced has been purchased and used. But the production volumes are a minute fraction of what aviation needs. That’s why it is essential for governments of countries with production potential, such as South Africa, to embrace what is a unique win-win opportunity for economic development, energy transition and decarbonised air transportation.”
International climate finance mechanisms remain inadequate. The Green Climate Fund has allocated billions for climate mitigation across Africa, but aviation has received negligible attention. Blended finance models combining concessional public funding with private capital offer promise. Development finance institutions could provide low-cost loans for SAF production facilities, reducing investment risk. Kenya has successfully deployed such models in geothermal energy development.
Regional cooperation amplifies investment efficiency. Rather than each African nation building standalone SAF industries, East African Community members could develop shared production capacity. Kenya’s geothermal resources, Tanzania’s natural gas reserves and Uganda’s biomass potential create complementary feedstock options for a regional SAF strategy.
Strategic recommendations
African aviation stakeholders should pursue a coordinated strategy balancing immediate actions with long-term positioning.
For governments: Develop national aviation decarbonisation roadmaps reflecting sector realities. Negotiate collectively for differentiated implementation timelines and climate finance access. Create policy environments conducive to SAF industry development through targeted incentives. Prioritise air traffic management modernisation and regional airspace optimisation.
For airports: Accelerate electrification of ground operations and renewable energy transitions. Pursue Airport Carbon Accreditation to demonstrate progress. Develop master plans incorporating climate adaptation measures for infrastructure resilience.
For airlines: Advocate collectively for equitable climate policies recognising Africa’s developmental priorities. Implement operational efficiency measures delivering immediate emissions and cost reductions. Develop fleet renewal strategies prioritising fuel-efficient aircraft as financing becomes available.
For development partners: Scale climate finance specifically targeting African aviation decarbonisation. Structure blended finance vehicles de-risking private investment in SAF production and green airport infrastructure. Support technology transfer enabling African institutions to lead their own transitions.
Turning constraint into competitive advantage
Africa’s aviation sector faces steeper decarbonisation challenges than any global region, but also unique opportunities to build green infrastructure from the ground up. Rather than retrofitting legacy systems, African nations can leapfrog to next-generation solutions as they become commercially viable.
Yvonne Makolo, CEO of RwandAir and first female Chair of the IATA Board of Governors, captures the opportunity: “Africa stands out as the region with the greatest potential and opportunity for aviation.”
Kenya’s aviation sector exemplifies the development imperative. Decarbonising this system without sacrificing connectivity requires patient capital, appropriate technology and policies balancing environmental ambition with economic realism. Success demands coordination across governments, airlines, airports and international partners around a shared vision: an African aviation sector connecting the continent to itself and the world whilst contributing equitably to global climate solutions.
With strategic foresight and collective action, Africa can chart a flight path toward both decarbonisation and development, proving these objectives need not be mutually exclusive.
The author acknowledges that aviation decarbonisation in Africa requires solutions that balance environmental sustainability with economic development imperatives—a challenge demanding innovative policy, patient capital, and international cooperation.
By Philip Mwangangi
